Le Congressional Budget Office (organe parlementaire qui contrôle l’exécution du budget fédéral) a discrètement doublé son estimation du coût des ouragans pour les années à venir, par rapport à deux ans plus tôt, si bien que la nouvelle estimation (54 milliards USD par an, soit 0,3% du PIB) est maintenant à un niveau très supérieur à ce qui était prévu pour 2075 encre très récemment, en 2016 (à savoir 39 milliards USD par an).
Vous trouverez ci-dessous plus d’infos, un lien vers le rapport du CBO et le texte complet de la dépêche de l’agence E&E.
E&E picked up on a new report by the US Congressional Budget Office on hurricanes. They’ve spotted the CBO has doubled its estimate of how much hurricanes will cost the US each year, compared with just 2 years ago. The new estimate means hurricanes now do more financial damage than they were expected to do in 2075.
Report here: //www.cbo.gov/system/files/2019-04/55019-ExpectedCostsFromWindStorm.pdf
E&E story here: //www.eenews.net/climatewire/2019/04/11/stories/1060153241
Annual hurricane costs double — CBO
Adam Aton, E&E News reporter Published: Thursday, April 11, 2019
The Congressional Budget Office doubled its estimate of annual hurricane costs, finding that extreme weather is dishing out damage that wasn’t expected for another 50 years.
The CBO forecasts hurricane damage to cost $54 billion each year, equivalent to 0.3% of the annual U.S. gross domestic product, according to a report released yesterday.
That’s about twice as high as the CBO’s estimate in 2016: $28 billion, increasing to $39 billion by 2075.
The jump between 2016 and 2019 reflects the difficulty of forecasting hurricanes, with two seasons of big storms like Hurricanes Harvey, Maria and Florence reshaping the way experts and the public think about extreme weather.
The CBO cautions that its estimates are “uncertain” because there’s no clear pattern to help anticipate the number of hurricanes, their strength and the damage they might cause.
The CBO averages damage from catastrophic years and normal ones. It’s an attempt to anticipate how several years of hurricane damage could affect the federal budget and economy, rather than a forecast of what each individual year will cost.
The residential sector would bear most of those costs, at $34 billion annually — about half of which is covered by disaster assistance and insurance. The commercial sector, which can expect $9 billion in annual hurricane losses, has about 40% coverage, according to the CBO.
The CBO said policymakers could lower hurricane costs by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. That would reduce the factors exacerbating hurricane damage — sea-level rise and extreme rainfall — especially in the latter half of the century, the estimate said.
The office suggested that pricing emissions through a carbon tax or a cap-and-trade regime would be most effective, but it could also crimp economic growth.
The office also recommended better flood mapping, revamping the National Flood Insurance Program, more federal investment in risk mitigation, stronger building codes, and requiring state and local governments to shoulder more disaster recovery costs.
Communiqué de l’European Climate Fundation
